S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier on rising inflation and the longer-than-expected Russia-Ukraine conflict. In its Global Macro Update to Growth Forecasts, S&P said inflation remaining higher for long is a worry, which requires central banks to raise rates more than what is currently priced in, risking a harder landing, including a larger hit to output and employment. S&P had in December last year pegged India's GDP growth in the 2022-23 fiscal, which began on April 1, 2022, at 7.8 per cent.
The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB)'s financial projections on the prof itability of its pet project 'The Hundred' is largely "disconnected from reality" reckoned Lalit Modi, who conceptualised the vastly successful Indian Premier League (IPL) in 2008.
'The FY2023 inflation outcome is likely to exceed the RBI's current forecast by a wide margin.'
Subdued prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation for the third month in a row to 5.3 per cent in August, within the RBI's comfort zone. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation declined to 5.3 per cent in August from 6.69 per cent in the same month a year ago, food inflation dipped at a much faster pace to 3.11 per cent from 9.05 per cent in August 2020. The food inflation was also lower than 3.96 per cent in preceding month of July.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
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Declining prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation to 5.59 per cent in July, bringing it back within the RBI's comfort zone after two months, official data showed on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had remained above 6 per cent during May and June. The government has mandated the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The CPI based inflation stood at 6.26 per cent in June 2021 and 6.73 per cent in July 2020.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022.
'Understand your financial goals. Next, categorise them by size. Then evaluate your investment options.'
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
The Indian economy continues to sustain the momentum achieved in the first half of 2023-24 and expectations of a fresh round of capex by the corporate sector is likely to fuel the next leg of growth, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Tuesday. "The likelihood of the global economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2024 has brightened in recent months, with risks broadly balanced," said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the bulletin.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance against the backdrop of concerns over the emergence of the new coronavirus variant Omicron.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday (local time) raised interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) or three-quarters of a percentage point in the boldest move since 1994.
Reserve Bank on Wednesday said it expects retail inflation at 5.2 per cent in the first half of the current fiscal and revised downwards the target to 5 per cent for the quarter ended March. While headline inflation at 5 per cent in Feb 2021 remains within the tolerance band, some underline constituents are testing the upper tolerance level. Going forward, the food inflation trajectory will critically depend on the temporal and special progress of southwest monsoon in the 2021 season, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Wednesday while announcing the first monetary policy for the current fiscal. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent to support growth in the current situation.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the fifth time in a row as it maintains a tight vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes, aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
RBI retained the GDP growth for the financial year 2018-19 at 7.4 per cent.
India has secured the second position, contributing 36 per cent of the total brand value, a significant achievement fuelled by a 14 per cent increase in brand value, according to Brand Finance 2025 ranking. India follows the US, which maintains its dominant position in IT services brand value, holding 40 per cent of the total brand value.
The RBI on Friday said the impact of coronavirus outbreak on the economy will depend on the intensity, spread and duration of the deadly virus even as the central bank refrained from projecting any numbers for growth and inflation amid the widespread uncertainty. While announcing the seventh bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2019-20, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that in view of the impact of coronavirus pandemic, the growth projections for 4.7 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2019-20 and 5 per cent for the full fiscal are "now at risk".
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
India and France are negotiating the deal for buying 26 Rafale Marine jets which are going to be deployed on the INS Vikrant aircraft carrier and different bases.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
The US Fed rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign inflows into India, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said on Thursday. He said the US Federal Reserve has done what it assesses is good for the largest economy in the world, but the RBI will take a decision on interest rate cut keeping the Indian economy in mind. "It is a positive for the global economy, including the Indian economy. "It is a 50 basis points cut from a high level.
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
After consumer price index jumped the 6.3-per cent mark in May and wholesale inflation set a record of 12.94 per cent, house economists at Swiss brokerage UBS Securities have warned that the country is facing more upside risks on the inflation front that is set to averaging at 5 per cent for the year. Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 per cent in May, breaching the comfort level of the Reserve Bank and thus rendering reduction in interest rates a difficult proposition in the near term. Led by petrol price, that has crossed the Rs 100-mark in many states, wholesale inflation too accelerated to a record 12.94 per cent in May. While crude oil has crossed $70 a barrel on account of rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods due to spike in commodities, and the low base of last year due to the lockdown.
RBI in its policy review last month kept interest rates unchanged and said it sees an upside risk to inflation.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain status quo on interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising inflation on account of geopolitical developments.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic inflation data and global trends would be key driving factors in dictating movement in the market this week, as the Lok Sabha elections outcome and the RBI policy decision are behind us, analysts said. The past week was a roller-coaster ride for investors as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains.
Citing various macroeconomic parameters that are doing pretty well, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant projected that the country is all set to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy in the world by 2025. The size of India's GDP is currently ranked 5th, after the US, China, Germany, and Japan. It overtook the UK in 2022.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Home Minister Rajnath Singh said that the decision could cost the government roughly Rs 15,000 crore.
Already retail inflation has risen to 6.07 per cent in February, crossing the upper band of the Parliamentary mandate. This is the second consecutive month in 2022 when retail inflation has crossed the 6 per cent mark having hit 6.01 per cent in January.
Such a high level of WPI was last recorded in October 2012, when inflation was 7.4 per cent.
'Within India, people want high-quality, personalised banking services, and the demand for such services has exploded.'
'He will be remembered more for what he did as finance minister -- as someone who functioned well when the political fallout was taken care of.'
Following the lacklustre growth numbers in the second quarter (Q2FY25), economists believe the upcoming Union Budget for 2025-26 should focus on reforms that will stimulate consumption, manufacturing and spur employment. India's growth unexpectedly slowed to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter, due to low capital formation, weak consumption, besides adverse weather impact.
